The Fed, the central bank of the United States, decided to keep its policy rate unchanged. This is the fifth meeting in a row without a change. Yet the key point is not the result itself. The committee that sets policy split 9 to 3, and three members argued for a rate hike. Even though the hold continues, the voices calling for a raise are actually growing. Behind the calm of "no change," tension inside the group is rising.

Behind this lies uncertainty about prices. According to NHK, the Fed appears to be carefully watching how inflation, meaning rising prices, moves against the backdrop of the situation in Iran. When global tensions rise, energy prices tend to go up. Higher energy costs then spread to a wide range of goods and services. So those who favor holding want to wait and see where prices go. Those who favor hiking argue that action should come before prices rise again. Looking at the same data, their judgments differ.

The outlook for rates also reaches the stock market. On the Tokyo market on the 29th, selling of chip-related shares grew stronger in the afternoon, and the Nikkei average fell. Why chips? High-growth stocks like chipmakers are bought on hopes for profits far in the future. When rates stay high, those future profits are worth less in today's terms. So the view that rates will not fall tends to put selling pressure on high-growth, high-valuation shares, meaning ones that look expensive.

This movement also touches our daily lives. First, mortgages and deposit rates. When U.S. rates stay high, people pay more attention to the gap between Japanese and U.S. rates. That gap is one factor shaping the direction of the yen against the dollar. It indirectly affects import prices and travel costs. Second, investing. If your funds or tax-free accounts hold many tech names, changes in the rate outlook become the backdrop of their price moves. This is not advice to buy or sell anything, but reading why an asset moved through the lens of rates is a useful habit.

What to watch is whether the number favoring a hike grows beyond 9-3 at future meetings. If the votes shift from three to four, then five, the market will start to price in a hike ahead. On the other hand, if prices calm down, agreement on holding could firm up. From a long-term view, it seems wise for us to assume a world where rates do not fall easily for a while. When rates are high, borrowing costs for firms and loan burdens for individuals grow heavier. This split can be read as a quiet signal that such a world is still with us.