On the 15th, the Nikkei average rose by more than 1,000 yen. The trigger was a view that chip demand will keep growing. Buy orders spread, mainly among related stocks. On the same day, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang visited Japan and joined an event with a major Japanese game company. The visit of such a well-known figure lifted the mood even more. Chips are now seen as core parts that power AI computing. This demand story moved the whole market.

The key point is to separate short-term excitement from long-term structure. A 1,000-yen move in one day can swing widely on hopes and guesses. A pullback the next day is not rare. On the other hand, demand for chips used in AI and data centers is a structural change measured in years. The real question is whether this trend is genuine. Rather than reacting to daily prices, it helps to check if demand turns into real sales and investment. Market mood and company strength do not always move at the same speed.

On the same 15th, the new Fed chairman, Kevin Warsh, testified before Congress. According to CNBC, his remarks focused on the economy and interest rates. U.S. rates are an upstream variable that spreads widely, from the yen to import prices and stock valuations. If rates are expected to fall, stocks tend to be bought. If rates stay high, expensive stocks face a headwind. For readers in Japan, U.S. rates affect import prices and travel costs through the yen. Checking the direction of rates behind the stock story really matters.

The Bank of Japan released the minutes of its policy meetings from early 2016, ten years ago. The meeting that introduced the unusual negative-rate policy was a very close call, with support just barely beating opposition. The records show a heated debate over the policy's effects. Negative rates later spread to home loan and deposit rates. The value of looking back is learning how tight that decision was. Such an unusual policy was not a cure-all; opinions were split. This gives us a clue for reading today's monetary policy too.

Let's organize what to watch next. First, whether chip demand really turns into orders and investment. A market that rose on hope alone tends to pull back if results do not follow. Second, the direction of U.S. rates. If the Fed's stance changes, both the yen and Japanese stocks feel the effect. Third, Japan's own policy moves. When rates shift away from the past negative-rate stage, home loans and deposits are affected. The three stories look separate but share one axis: interest rates. Following that axis calmly is more useful than chasing daily moves.